Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.;'s Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic PDF

By Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R

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Empirically, such a model seems to fit the data well. For fallout from a nuclear detonation, we use a bimodal, lognormal distribution. Equation 1 gives the general form of the fallout ASD. Values of the parameters for our three scenarios are given in Table 10. These empirical parameters have been determined from measurements. 17 S2 AAi = b+, - Ai. where : Table 2 2 lnri-lnpl Activitv-size distribution parameters for scenarios fallout calculations (See kquation 1). 5 for the UND. The initial model times are t=O for the FF and HED, and five minutes for the UND.

Equation 1 gives the general form of the fallout ASD. Values of the parameters for our three scenarios are given in Table 10. These empirical parameters have been determined from measurements. 17 S2 AAi = b+, - Ai. where : Table 2 2 lnri-lnpl Activitv-size distribution parameters for scenarios fallout calculations (See kquation 1). 5 for the UND. The initial model times are t=O for the FF and HED, and five minutes for the UND. Median Weighting Factors Radius Geo. Std. Dev. 8 ml 29 rmin-rmax (1) Respirable Particle Sizes l For respirable particles, the “respirable fraction” of Pu mass is determined by experiment and is given in Table 2.

Stephens,C. Hall,G. Holman,T. Harvey,and F. Serduke,“ProbabilisticCost-BenefitAnalysisof Enhanced Safety Featuresfor Strategic NuclearWeaponsat a RepresentativeLocation”,UCRL-JC-115269,LLNL, Livermore CA 94550, prepared for submittal to PSAM-II: Conferenceon Probabilistic Safety and Management, SanDiego,CA March1994, l T. Harvey,L. Peters,F. Serduke,and L. Edwards,“Probabilistic Consequence Studyof ResidualRadiologicalEffects from a HypotheticalTen-Ton InadvertentNuclearYield”, UCRL-ID-115874, February1994,LLNL LivermoreCA 94550.

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Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits by Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R


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